“When is the next CPI report?” was a question no one was asking back in the days of 2% inflation readings.
Alas, those days are long gone. Inflation hit a four-decade high in 2022, prompting the Federal Reserve to embark on its most aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes since the late Carter and early Reagan administrations.
Though inflation appears to have peaked many months ago, the fact remains that it’s still far too high for the central bank’s comfort. That’s why the Consumer Price Index or CPI report has become pretty much the star of the economic data calendar.
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Markets desperately want the Fed to stop raising interest rates – and perhaps even envisage a time when they might cut them – but that won’t happen until inflation is under control. There’s also the very real fear that rising rates could cause the economy to fall into a recession.
This explains the market’s obsession with the next CPI report. And the one after that, and the one after that.
For the record, the CPI report is released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, (opens in new tab) based on price data collected over the course of the month.
Per the BLS, prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey.
The CPI report is broken down into many subcategories, but the two main ones you’ll hear most about on CPI day are headline CPI and core CPI. The headline number is the main inflation gauge. Core CPI excludes volatile food and energy prices, and is considered to be a better predictor of future inflation. The data are expressed as percent changes, and are measured both month-to-month and year-over-year.
As for the next CPI report, it’s slated for release by the BLS on Tuesday, Feb. 14 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones forecast headline inflation to increase 0.4% on a monthly basis, and by 6.2% year-over-year.
That would be a continuation of trend, as inflation cooled in December with prices rising at a pace of 6.5% year-over-year.
Anticipation over the January CPI report is giving traders and investors even more agita than usual. Fears are running high that a hot inflation print will force the Federal Reserve to send interest rates higher and keep them there longer.
To keep tabs on when the next CPI report lands, please see the schedule of release dates (opens in new tab), courtesy of the BLS, below.
CPI Report Release Schedule
(Image credit: Bureau of Labor Statistics)