Higher interest rates could deepen the selloff in tech stocks
Author of the article:
Bloomberg News
Subrat Patnaik
Brand new redesigned MacBook Air laptops are displayed during the WWDC22 at Apple Park on June 6, 2022 in Cupertino, California. Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images Apple Inc.’s run as a US$3-trillion stock proved fleeting. Now its grip on a US$2-trillion market value is looking wobbly, too.
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After briefly surpassing $3 trillion in January, the iPhone maker has lost more than US$800 billion in capitalization as tech stocks plunged. With concern growing that the United States Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases could tip the U.S. into recession, the US$2-trillion milestone is looking precarious. Apple closed Tuesday at US$2.15 trillion.
“In the same way that Apple benefited from the Fed-fuelled bull market, it will suffer as the low interest rate and quantitative easing subsidies fade,” said David Trainer, chief executive officer at investment research firm New Constructs.
Economists predict the Fed will raise interest rates Wednesday by at least half a percentage point, with some predicting a 0.75-point increase in the wake of Friday’s stronger-than-expected inflation data. Further increases are expected this year. All of that could deepen the selloff in tech stocks, which are particularly vulnerable to higher interest rates as they weigh on the current valuation of companies’ future profits.
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The FAANG cohort — Facebook owner Meta Platforms Inc., Apple, Amazon.com Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. — were poster children of the two-year bull market, rallying at breakneck speed to scale historic valuations. That quickly evaporated this year with the group losing a combined US$2.6 trillion in market value as investors fled from growth names for safer assets. Amazon is also close to falling below US$1 trillion.
Analysts have grown cautious, too. Over the past three months, they’ve cut their estimates for Apple’s fiscal third-quarter earnings by 7.8 per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Revenue projections are down about 4.2 per cent over the same period. The stock also has the lowest share of analyst buy ratings in more than a year.
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KeyBanc Capital Markets sees signs of softer U.S. demand, citing credit card data spending. Others have raised concerns about the pace of revenue growth at the company’s App Store, with Morgan Stanley adding that this poses risks to its estimates for Apple’s services business. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, Apple derived 18.7 per cent of its fiscal 2021 revenue and more than 30 per cent of gross profit from services.
More On This Topic Apple is jumping into the buy now, pay later market Apple is raising pay for employees amid high inflation, union drives Apple’s Ford hire is a shot in the arm for its car project Apple to cut iPhone, AirPods output as demand shrinks, report says Apple’s stock woes have intensified this year with a 25 per cent slump and Saudi Aramco snatching its title as the world’s most valuable company. Setting aside the headwinds that have broadly pressured tech stocks — rising interest rates, slowing economic growth and soaring inflation — the tech giant is also facing supply constraints related to COVID restrictions in China. In April, it warned that it could take a US$4-billion to US$8-billion hit to revenues for the current quarter.
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Article content History shows that it can take years for technology stocks to climb back to the highs set in raging bull markets, assuming they ever do. Cisco Systems Inc., a star of the late 1990s tech frenzy, is still 46 per cent below its all-time peak of March 2000.
“I would say that if an investor under-owns these names, then this is an opportunity to add to positions,” said Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott, which has about US$130 billion in assets. “However, there are always names that lead in some eras, but then it takes years for them to them to regain their record levels. Just because they will continue to grow, that doesn’t mean these names will regain their former leadership.”
Bloomberg.com
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