Stanley Druckenmiller said there’s a high probability of a flat stock market for 10 years. That’s because of a rollback in globalization and easy monetary policy. The Fed has already hiked interest rates four times this year. Loading Something is loading.
Billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller sees a bleak outlook for the stock market, and that there’s a “high probability” of the stock market being flat for 10 years.
“There’s a high probability in my mind that the market, at best, is going to be kind of flat for 10 years, sort of like this ’66 to ’82 time period,” said Druckenmiller in a discussion with Alex Karp, the CEO of data company Palantir, according to a YouTube video uploaded on Tuesday.
One key change is the reversal of globalization that drove high productivity, contributing to disinflation. Central banks also adopted generally loose monetary policies since the Global Financial Crisis in 2008 to boost growth, but are now tightening their stance.
The Federal Reserve has implemented four interest rate hikes so this year and is likely to hike rates further to tame inflation.
“Now, they’re like reformed smokers,” Druckenmiller said of central banks. “They’ve gone from printing a bunch of money, like driving a Porsche at 200 miles an hour, by not only taking the foot off the gas, but just slamming the brakes on,” he added.
As a result, gains in the bullish stock market since 1982, which went into “hyperdrive” in the last decade, will likely taper off, said Druckenmiller, who is a former lead portfolio manager for George Soros’ Quantum Fund.
Stock markets tend to fall when interest rates rise, as higher rates may hit company profits. This reduces the appeal of stocks versus assets like bonds, which are less risky.
Despite the doom and gloom, there could be an upside in a stagnant environment, said Druckenmiller.
“The nice thing is, there were companies that did very, very well in that environment back then,” Druckenmiller said, referring to the period a flat stock market from 1966 to 1982. “That’s when Apple Computer was founded, Home Depot was founded.”
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