Goldman Sachs sees limited upside for the S&P 500 in 2023 as earnings stay flat. But if corporate earnings decline in a recession, US stocks could plunge. Here are 40 stocks that Goldman Sachs analysts believe have the most upside right now. US stocks got off to a choppy start in the first week of 2023, and Goldman Sachs thinks the volatility is only just getting started.
Although Goldman’s year-end S&P 500 target of 4,000 implies a muted 5% gain, its strategists see the path forward as anything but uneventful. The firm predicts the index will slide 6% to 3,600 in the first three months of 2023 before rebounding by 8% to 3,900 at the year’s midpoint.
But even modest gains are no guarantee this year, given that Goldman Sachs is also calling for flat earnings growth. David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note about his 2023 outlook that investors should expect “less pain but also no gain.”
If corporate earnings remain flat, then US stocks could only rise if investors pay a premium for them in the face of historically high interest rates and stock valuations. And while some firms see profits improving from 2022, many on Wall Street are envisioning outright earnings declines.
Goldman Sachs isn’t calling for negative earnings since — unlike most of its investment banking peers — it doesn’t believe there will be a recession in the next year. If the consensus prevails and the economy does enter a downturn, Kostin wrote that earnings could fall 11% as the market’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio falls to 14x, which would put the S&P 500 at 3,150.
40 high-upside stocks to buyHowever, Goldman Sachs still sees attractive investing opportunities in this turbulent market.
Below are 40 stocks that the firm’s strategists identified in a January 4 note as having the most upside in 2023. Along with each name is its ticker, market capitalization, and upside to the firm’s price target as of December 30.
1. Salesforce
Markets Insider Ticker: CRM
Market cap: $136.3B
Upside to price target: 126.3%
Source: Goldman Sachs
2. Mosaic
Markets Insider Ticker: MOS
Market cap: $15.2B
Upside to price target: 109.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
3. Warner Bros. Discovery
Markets Insider Ticker: WBD
Market cap: $26.4B
Upside to price target: 100.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
4. Expedia
Markets Insider Ticker: EXPE
Market cap: $14.6B
Upside to price target: 97.5%
Source: Goldman Sachs
5. Amazon
Markets Insider Ticker: AMZN
Market cap: $851.9B
Upside to price target: 96.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
6. Match Group
Markets Insider Ticker: MTCH
Market cap: $11.8B
Upside to price target: 68.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
7. Moderna
Markets Insider Ticker: MRNA
Market cap: $66.9B
Upside to price target: 68.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
8. Tesla
Markets Insider Ticker: TSLA
Market cap: $346.6B
Upside to price target: 66.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
9. Trimble
Markets Insider Ticker: TRMB
Market cap: $12.4B
Upside to price target: 66.1%
Source: Goldman Sachs
10. ServiceNow
Markets Insider Ticker: NOW
Market cap: $74.2B
Upside to price target: 64.8%
Source: Goldman Sachs
11. Hasbro
Markets Insider Ticker: HAS
Market cap: $8.8B
Upside to price target: 60.6%
Source: Goldman Sachs
12. Live Nation Entertainment
Markets Insider Ticker: LYV
Market cap: $16.6B
Upside to price target: 60.6%
Source: Goldman Sachs
13. CF Industries
Markets Insider Ticker: CF
Market cap: $16.4B
Upside to price target: 57.3%
Source: Goldman Sachs
14. PayPal
Markets Insider Ticker: PYPL
Market cap: $86.9B
Upside to price target: 55.9%
Source: Goldman Sachs
15. First Solar
Markets Insider Ticker: FSLR
Market cap: $15.5B
Upside to price target: 54.2%
Source: Goldman Sachs
16. Incyte
Markets Insider Ticker: INCY
Market cap: $17.9B
Upside to price target: 53.1%
Source: Goldman Sachs
17. Alphabet
Markets Insider Ticker: GOOGL
Market cap: $1,120B
Upside to price target: 53%
Source: Goldman Sachs
18. Generac Holdings
Markets Insider Ticker: GNRC
Market cap: $6.2B
Upside to price target: 53%
Source: Goldman Sachs
19. Tyson Foods
Markets Insider Ticker: TSN
Market cap: $23.1B
Upside to price target: 52.6%
Source: Goldman Sachs
20. Vertex Pharmaceuticals
Markets Insider Ticker: VRTX
Market cap: $74.3B
Upside to price target: 52.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
21. Lincoln National
Markets Insider Ticker: LNC
Market cap: $5.3B
Upside to price target: 49.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
22. Intuit
Markets Insider Ticker: INTU
Market cap: $105.5B
Upside to price target: 47.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
23. SolarEdge Technologies
Markets Insider Ticker: SEDG
Market cap: $15.5B
Upside to price target: 46.9%
Source: Goldman Sachs
24. EQT Corp.
Markets Insider Ticker: EQT
Market cap: $11.8B
Upside to price target: 44.8%
Source: Goldman Sachs
25. Take-Two Interactive Software
Markets Insider Ticker: TTWO
Market cap: $17.8B
Upside to price target: 44.1%
Source: Goldman Sachs
26. Enphase Energy
Markets Insider Ticker: ENPH
Market cap: $32.7B
Upside to price target: 43%
Source: Goldman Sachs
27. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals
Markets Insider Ticker: REGN
Market cap: $78.8B
Upside to price target: 42.3%
Source: Goldman Sachs
28. Global Payments
Markets Insider Ticker: GPN
Market cap: $27.6B
Upside to price target: 42%
Source: Goldman Sachs
29. Adobe
Markets Insider Ticker: ADBE
Market cap: $152.7B
Upside to price target: 41.1%
Source: Goldman Sachs
30. Sealed Air
Markets Insider Ticker: SEE
Market cap: $7.2B
Upside to price target: 40.3%
Source: Goldman Sachs
31. Alaska Air Group
Markets Insider Ticker: ALK
Market cap: $5.6B
Upside to price target: 39.7%
Source: Goldman Sachs
32. TE Connectivity
Markets Insider Ticker: TEL
Market cap: $36.8B
Upside to price target: 39.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
33. Raymond James Financial
Markets Insider Ticker: RJF
Market cap: $23B
Upside to price target: 38.5%
Source: Goldman Sachs
35. Iron Mountain
Markets Insider Ticker: IRM
Market cap: $14.2B
Upside to price target: 36.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
36. Walt Disney
Markets Insider Ticker: DIS
Market cap: $167.5B
Upside to price target: 35.8%
Source: Goldman Sachs
37. United Airlines Holdings
Markets Insider Ticker: UAL
Market cap: $13.5B
Upside to price target: 35.3%
Source: Goldman Sachs
38. Discover Financial Services
Markets Insider Ticker: DFS
Market cap: $27.2B
Upside to price target: 34.9%
Source: Goldman Sachs
39. American International Group
Markets Insider Ticker: AIG
Market cap: $47.2B
Upside to price target: 34.4%
Source: Goldman Sachs
40. Republic Services
Markets Insider Ticker: RSG
Market cap: $39.6B
Upside to price target: 34.1%
Source: Goldman Sachs