The Treasury bond market sell-off marks one of the worst crashes in history. High yields are hitting stocks, but other assets across financial markets are also reeling. Commodities, crypto, housing and foreign currencies have been slumping too. Loading Something is loading.
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Traders have been dropping long-duration US bonds in one of the worst collapses in market history, sending yields soaring towards levels not seen in decades.
As growing yields have made bonds increasingly more attractive to investors, both the benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq have dropped around 7% since the end of July.
But stocks are just one piece of the puzzle, and the consequences of soaring yields have become clearer for investors across financial markets.
Dollar boom, crypto bust
High-yielding Treasurys accelerate foreign demand for the US dollar, which has jumped 7% since mid-July. In that span it has pushed foreign currencies to structural lows, UBS wrote in a note Wednesday. For instance, the yen has dropped almost 8% to about 150 per dollar, it’s lowest since October, while the euro and British pound have weakened 6.1% and 7%, respectively.
“Against this backdrop we favor selling upside risk for the euro, the Swiss franc, or the British pound, against structurally weak currencies like the Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and Norwegian krone,” UBS said.
Meanwhile, the rising attraction of Treasurys has helped fuel a capital outflow from China, devaluing its offshore yuan.
As yields rise, investors are less keen to hold risky investments, and cryptocurrencies have taken a hit, with bitcoin down 14% from a July high and ether down 22%.
Commodities
When Treasury rates climb, they offer investors a higher return on a safe investment. Due to this, non-interest-bearing gold has come under pressure, losing around 7% since late July.
As of Friday, gold was trading at around $1,832, its lowest level since March, and UBS recently cut its year-end outlook to $1,850 from $1,950.
While gold’s appeal as an investment has diminished, industrial metals have also weakened as higher rates weigh on prospects for economic growth and manufacturing activity.
Copper, aluminum and zinc have declined. Driven by lackluster demand, copper has lost about 9% since July and is back at March low.
Though oil is less dependent on bond market swings, continued strength in the dollar typically puts downward pressure on crude prices, as most deals are denominated in greenbacks.
Brent crude prices have plunged 10% since late September, with a sharp decline this past week triggered by signs that global demand for oil is falling.
Mortgage applications plummet
Mortgage rates have risen in line with US bond yields, making the housing markets less affordable and weighing on home-buying activity.
In the latest weekly data, applications for home loans fell 6% to their lowest levels since 1996, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. And for home purchases, applications slowed to the lowest level of activity since 1995.
Those declines came as the average rate on the 30-year mortgage rose to 7.53%, the highest cost of borrowing for since 2000.