More oil releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could handicap the Biden administration, analysts say. The key reserve will hit 346 million barrels after the next release April. “To allow this drawdown to take place has put undue stress on American resources and limits our ability to respond to an oil market spike.” Loading Something is loading.
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More releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve could handicap the Biden administration’s ability to combat a future oil shock, according to analysts.
President Joe Biden, who was outspoken about using the SPR to lower gasoline prices, unloaded more than 200 millions barrels of oil from the reserve last year as Russia’s war on Ukraine jolted energy markets. The SPR, the largest emergency oil stockpile in the world, is now at its lowest level since 1983.
It will be further tapped in April with a congressionally mandated sale of 26 million barrels, bringing the level to 346 million barrels — nearly half of what it was when Biden took office. While that’s still more than last year’s release, it may be less in reality.
The International Energy Agency requires members like the US to hold a minimum level for collective interventions. RBC Capital Markets has estimated the US obligation is about 315 million barrels. The minimum can include private-sector inventories, but those are seen as less reliable than the SPR.
And with the global energy market still uncertain a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the US could be vulnerable.
“To allow this drawdown to take place has put undue stress on American resources and limits our ability to respond to an oil market spike,” according to Evercore ISI senior managing director James West.
Russia has signaled it is not done using energy as a weapon against the West. Earlier this month, oil prices surged after the Kremlin announced it would slash its crude production by 5% in response to sanctions.
Meanwhile, OPEC doesn’t plan to increase oil supplies after cutting production last year. Saudi Arabia’s energy minister said Tuesday that quotas set in October will remain in place through 2023 and indicated that the threshold to change that is high.
In the US, extra supply is also limited. Top oil companies have prioritized using their capital to boost shareholder returns over pumping more crude. That trend is unlikely to reverse. Last month, Chevron launched a massive $75 billion stock buyback program — triple its prior buyback — and increased its quarterly dividend 6%.
And on the demand side, China is expected to consume more oil as it continues to emerge from its zero-COVID policies, adding more pressure on supplies and prices.
“Once the US SPR drops to 346 million barrels as a consequence of the said release, there will be very limited scope for the White House to release any more of the strategic stocks,” Kpler lead crude analyst Viktor Katona said.
He acknowledged the US is less dependent on oil imports as domestic crude production has soared in recent years, meaning an outside shock would hit differently than, say, a decade ago.
At the same time, the SPR is a safety buffer “in case all hell breaks loose,” such as a pipeline exploding, Katona added.
“So the 346 million barrels will most probably still be alright. It’s just the gradual shrinking of options that is somewhat worrying,” he said.