Russia’s central bank has doubled interest rates, limited foreigners from moving money, and made other moves in response to Western sanctions. Russia’s economy is in turmoil and the ruble is worth less than a penny. Two experts explained what Russia’s central bank could do next. Loading Something is loading.
Western sanctions are battering the Russian economy, and its central bank has been maneuvering in any way it can in order to forestall economic collapse.
Last weekend, Russia’s central bank doubled its interest rates, snapped up gold in the domestic market to shore up its finances, and it declared that Western countries could not exit Russian investments.
Russian banks have struggled after being banned from the SWIFT interbank messaging system, and on Wednesday the central bank announced it was seeing a widening liquidity shortage as its citizens make a run on banks.
“The central bank needs access to foreign exchange reserves to stop the [bank] run, but with G7 sanctions preventing access, the domestic economic situation is likely to deteriorate further,” John Breen, lead global risk analyst at intelligence firm Sibylline, told Insider.
Russia has kept its stock market closed all week, and some index operators have deemed Russian stocks “uninvestable.”
The ruble has cratered, and the European Commission said last Saturday that allies would “paralyze” upwards of $630 billion worth of the Russian Central Bank’s international reserves.
“Sanctions have severely undermined the Russian central bank’s tools to prevent economic collapse,” Breen said. It was Russia’s foreign exchange reserves that helped them cushion the impact of Western sanctions in 2008 and 2014, he added, and those aren’t available now.
Scores of foreign companies have ended business operations in the country and major fund managers have frozen at least $3 billion in assets exposed to Russia.
“Russian banks owe a lot of money to western lenders and those assets will likely reduce to zero along with the mass default of Russian creditors,” Breen said.
Wednesday, Russia banned brokers from selling securities on behalf of non-Russians, imposed limits on foreigners trying to transfer money out of the country, and said they wouldn’t be able to collect bond coupon payments on Russian debt.
Major rating agencies all downgraded Russia’s credit worthiness to junk status this week.
What comes next?While it’ll be extremely difficult for Russia’s central bank to navigate the coming weeks, a next step for the central bank could be to lean further into its energy reserves, Breen said, as oil and gas remain the biggest revenue generators for Russia.
The central bank could also attempt to parley with China, as China holds 13.8% of Russia’s foreign exchange reserves, according to Breen. China could possibly help bolster the ruble, too.
“The Russian central bank [could look] to alter the ruble’s reference currency to the Chinese yuan,” Breen said.
But because China and Russia recently settled a 30-year gas deal in euros, this option may not be palatable. Breen noted that cooperation from Beijing is not guaranteed, as Western sanctions could target China for assisting Moscow.
While Ukraine has made use of cryptocurrencies, Russia probably won’t be able to do the same, according to Ari Redbord, head of legal and government affairs at blockchain and risk management firm, TRM Labs.
“I don’t think cryptocurrency is a reasonable off-ramp for sanction evasions,” Redbord told Insider. Given the size of Russia’s economy, he doesn’t think the Russian bank would be able to devise any viable, last-minute blockchain solution with enough scale.
The open ledger-nature of the blockchain will make it difficult for the government to move any large amount of crypto because global regulators will be able to see it.
“The combination of the lack of liquidity in the crypto market to sustain the Russian economy, as well as strict compliance controls in the larger crypto exchanges will make it impossible for the Russian central bank to even move any crypto,” Redbord said.
“There’s not much Russia could do internally given the interconnected nature of the global economy,” he said. “These next few months will be a very, very difficult time for the Russian bank.”