The US consumer is doing just fine, and their resilient spending habits should help stave off a recession.That’s true even amid concerns of dwindling excess savings and the imminent resumption of student loan payments.These five charts help show just how resilient the US consumer is despite fears of a recession. Loading Something is loading.
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The US consumer is doing just fine as they continue to spend money despite elevated inflation and ongoing fears that a recession will soon hit the economy.
Despite some commentators sounding the alarm, the US consumer isn’t in imminent financial trouble because of dwindling excess savings from the COVID-19 pandemic on top of student loan payments set to kick in again later this year.
That’s the big takeaway from Carson Group’s chief market strategist Ryan Detrick, who highlighted just how strong the consumer really is based on various economic datasets in the firm’s 2023 mid-year outlook report.
The consumer is important to track for because about 70% of the US economy is driven by consumer spending, which relies heavily on the daily spending habits of more than 300 million Americans.
And current data is pointing to stronger trends today than pre-pandemic.
These are the five key charts that show just how strong the consumer is, and why that strength should continue to shield the US economy from an imminent recession.
1. Monthly debt payments are manageable.
Carson Group “When thinking about debt, the key question is whether households are able to service that debt,” Detrick.
Enter the household debt service ratio, which measures the percentage of consumers’ income that is being used to pay off all types of debts, from mortgages to credit card bills to student loans.
Based on estimates from JPMorgan, the household debt service ratio at the end of the second quarter was 9.7%. That figure is well below the 13.2% reading seen in the fourth-quarter of 2007, and it’s also below the pre-pandemic average of 11.2%. That gives the consumer plenty of wiggle room to take on more debt if they need to, which would lead to more spending and help lift the economy.
2. Real income growth.
Carson Group For much of the past two years, wage gains have failed to keep pace with quickly rising inflation. But with inflation finally falling, and wage gains holding steady, that’s changed. It means consumers ultimately have more money in their pocket, another good sign that should support the economy going forward.
“Disposable income has grown at an annualized pace of 10% over the first five months of this year. Meanwhile, inflation is running just about 4%, meaning households are seeing real income gains,” Detrick said.
3. A healthy balance sheet.
JPMorgan Consumers have $168.5 trillion in total assets compared to just $19.6 trillion in debt. That’s a healthy balance sheet and doesn’t suggest a period of weakness ahead.
4. A strong jobs market.
Carson Group At the end of the day, all that matters is that consumers have jobs, as that’s what fuels the bulk of their spending habits. If they have a paycheck, they’re spending money. So it’s no surprise just how important the strength of the job market is for the consumer, and right now the job market is looking great, with plenty of open positions for those that are looking around.
“The employment-population ratio for prime-age workers (25-54 years), which accounts for labor force participation issues and an aging population, is now at 80.7%. That is higher than at any point between 2002 and 2022. This is truly remarkable, and points to a labor market that is the strongest we’ve seen since the late 1990s,” Detrick said.
5. Strong spending trends.
Carson Group “Consumption continues to run along the pre-pandemic trend, even after adjusting for inflation… Spending driven by rising real incomes means consumers don’t feel the need to borrow to the extent they did before the pandemic,” Detrick said.