‘It’s not all doom and gloom, bear markets will end’
Traders work on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange as Christmas approaches. Photo by REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File Photo Each year, the people at Mawer Investment Management Ltd. offer their year-end perspective in the form of a poem to Financial Post readers.
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’Twas the week before Christmas
Thus time to review
The economic story
Of 2022.
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What y’all know is coming
We would be remiss
To not raise inflation
It caused few any bliss.
As most of us can attest
Pump prices did soar
Our food is more expensive
Everything costs more 🙁
As inflation kept rising
To multi-decade highs,
Central banks kept committing
To bring its demise.
They rolled out the rate hikes
To tame the great beast
But despite their strong actions
CPI increased.
And the impact on markets
— It’s true and it’s sad —
For both equities and bonds
The decline was bad.
The impact was greatest
For high-flying tech
Unprofitable cash flows
Do now seem a wreck.
While stronger businesses
With power to price
Could maintain their margins
With little sacrifice.
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But volatility loomed large
Throughout the whole year
When Powell did speak
’Twas risk-on or great fear!
Devastating conflict
Arose in Ukraine
Commodities went up
Supply chains felt pain.
There was more from China
That gave us the yips:
Much consternation over
Tiny little chips.
Deglobalization may lead
To a world multi-polar
Will the greenback remain
Currency’s high roller?
Cryptocurrency did plunge
Amid the spiral
Of FTX Exchange
The collapse went viral.
We avoid all the crypto
On it, we’re tough
In regards to our criteria —
It’s not “boring” enough.
We acknowledge the content
Of this poem seems bleak
Uncertainty remains
There are answers to seek.
Is a recession for sure?
Hard or soft landing?
Is this just a bear rally,
Or one longer standing?
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But to end on a high note
This message we send:
“It’s not all doom and gloom,
bear markets will end.”
For now, we trust the process
Stay calm and prepare
Continue thinking long term
Choose “boring” over flare.
Our greatest wish for you all:
Your worries be light and
Have financial peace of mind
To sleep through the night.
Happy holidays from all of us at Mawer!
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