Some of the biggest risks facing the world today are erosion of social cohesion, growing rivalries and environmental crises. And risks can rapidly become severe, as we have seen in Ukraine in the past two weeks.
Residents evacuate Irpin, Ukraine, March 5, 2022. / Shutterstock
Some of the biggest risks facing the world today are erosion of social cohesion, growing rivalries and environmental crises. And risks can rapidly become severe, as we have seen in Ukraine in the past two weeks.
The integrity of our social fabric, looming debt crises and loss of livelihood—along with infectious disease itself—are scars of the pandemic. These risks, and the health of the planet, are seen as some of the most imminent threats to the world.
The planet cannot wait: failure to take climate action, extreme weather and loss of biodiversity are also risks that rank among the most potentially severe in the next decade, according to the Global Risks Report 2022, an annual study published by the World Economic Forum.
The report, published January, considers 37 global risks that would have a widespread impact should they play out. Covid-19 is an example, with nearly 5.8 million deaths worldwide, widespread illness, as well as its impact on the health care system, economy, education and other aspects of society.
And risks can rapidly become crises, as we have seen in Ukraine in the past two weeks. Some of these risks — fracture of interstate relations and interstate conflict — have once again become front and center with Russia’s attack on Ukraine that began Feb. 24, 2022. Such a crisis leads to the realization of other global risks: large-scale involuntary migration, state collapse, geoeconomic confrontations, debt crises, and further degradation of the environment, to name a few.
The report includes a survey of nearly 1,000 global experts and leaders who are asked to choose nine of 37 global risks and rank them from 1 to 9, according to their perceived severity of impact, where the most severe has the potential to yield the most damage on a global scale within the next 10 years.
Respondents were asked to value the impact of risks considering human suffering, societal disruption, economic shock, environmental degradation and political instability. The results were aggregated by how many times each risk was ranked either most severe, second-most severe, and so forth.
Asked to take a view of the past two years, respondents to the survey said societal risks—in the form of erosion of social cohesion, livelihood crises and deterioration of mental health as those that have worsened the most since the pandemic began.
Only 16% of respondents feel positive and optimistic about the outlook for the world, and just 11% believe the current global recovery will accelerate.
Most respondents instead expect the next three years to be characterized by either consistent volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners and losers, the report says.
Here are the greatest threats to the world, ranked in order of those of greatest concern, according to the survey, along with their descriptions. They are categorized as societal, economic, environmental, technological and geopolitical.
1. Erosion of social cohesionCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 27.8%
Loss of social capital and a fracture of social networks negatively impacting social stability, individual well-being and economic productivity as a result of persistent public anger, distrust, divisiveness, lack of empathy, marginalization of minorities, and political polarization.
This is the risk that has worsened the most globally since the start of the Covid-19 crisis, according to the GRPS. It is perceived as a critical threat to the world across all time spans—short, medium and long term—and is seen as among the most potentially damaging for the next 10 years, the report says.
2. Employment and livelihood crisesCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 25.5%
Structural deterioration of work prospects and/or standards for the working-age population: unemployment, underemployment, lower wages, fragile contracts, erosion of worker rights, etc.
This is seen as the most immediate national threat in 97 countries, including 16 of the G20 economies. Millions of people are already seeking to cross borders in search of better economic opportunities, creating a wave of economic migrants.
3. Climate action failureCategory: Environmental
Percent of respondents: 25.4%
Failure of governments and businesses to enforce, enact or invest in effective climate change adaptation and mitigation measures, preserve ecosystems, protect populations and transition to a carbon-neutral economy.
A disorderly climate transition will exacerbate inequalities. Climate change is already manifesting rapidly in the form of droughts, fires, floods, resource scarcity and species loss, among other impacts. Failure to act will further divide countries and societies, creating barriers to cooperation.
Above, demonstrators wear masks of world leaders during march in Glasgow, U.K, during the UN COP26 climate conference in November 2021.
4. Mental health deteriorationCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 23%
Pervasiveness of mental health ailments and/or disorders globally and across multiple demographics, negatively impacting well-being, social cohesion and productivity: anxiety, dementia, depression, loneliness, stress.
This was exacerbated by Covid-19.
5. Extreme weatherCategory: Environmental
Percent of respondents: 22.7%
Loss of human life, damage to ecosystems, destruction of property and/or financial loss at a global scale that comes as a result of extreme weather events: cold fronts, fires, floods, heat waves, windstorms and others.
The countries ranking these risks highly are particularly prone to wildfires, droughts, floods, deforestation and pollution. Worsening extreme weather will trigger large-scale migration and displacement, the report says, and that more frequent and extreme weather events— including fires, floods and droughts—could displace more than 200 million people by 2050.
>>Also see: 30 Ways the World Is Taking Bold Climate Action
6. Debt crisesCategory: Economic
Percent of respondents: 13.8%
Corporate and/or public finances overwhelmed by debt accumulation and/or debt servicing in large economies, resulting in mass bankruptcies, defaults, insolvency, liquidity crises or sovereign debt crises.
Sovereign debt has spiked because of the pandemic—government debt globally increased by 13% in 2020.
7. Failure of cybersecurity measuresCategory: Technological
Percent of respondents: 12.4%
Business, government and household cybersecurity infrastructure and/or measures are outstripped or rendered obsolete by increasingly sophisticated and frequent cyber crimes, resulting in economic disruption, financial loss, geopolitical tensions and/or social instability.
8. Infectious diseasesCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 10.9%
Massive and rapid spread of viruses, parasites, fungi or bacteria that cause an uncontrolled contagion of infectious diseases, resulting in an epidemic or pandemic with loss of life and economic disruption.
9. Digital inequalityCategory: Technological
Percent of respondents: 10.5%
Fractured and/or unequal access to critical digital networks and technology, between and within countries, as a result of unequal investment capabilities, lack of necessary skills in the workforce, insufficient purchase power, government restrictions and/or cultural differences.
10. Pervasive backlash against scienceCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 9.5%
Censure, denial and/or skepticism towards scientific evidence and the scientific community at a global scale can result in a regression or stalling of progress on climate action, human health and/or technological innovation.
11. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapseCategory: Environmental
Percent of respondents: 8.4%
This has irreversible consequences for the environment, humankind, and economic activity, and leads to a permanent destruction of natural capital, as a result of species extinction and/ or reduction.
12. Geo-economic confrontationsCategory: Geopolitical
Percent of respondents: 8.2%
Deployment of economic levers, including investment controls, trade controls, non-tariff barriers and/or currency measures, by global or regional powers to decouple economic interactions between nations and consolidate spheres of influence.
13. Human-made environmental damageCategory: Environmental
Percent of respondents: 7.8%
Loss of human life, financial loss and/or damage to ecosystems as a result of human activity and/or failure to co-exist with animal ecosystems. It is a result of things like deregulation of protected areas, industrial accidents, oil spills, radioactive contamination and wildlife trade.
14. Widespread youth disillusionmentCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 7.1%
Youth disengagement, lack of confidence and loss of trust of economic, political and social structures at a global scale negatively impacts social stability, individual well-being and economic productivity.
15. Fracture of interstate relationsCategory: Geopolitical
Percent of respondents: 7%
Economic, political and/or technological rivalries between geopolitical powers result in a fracture of bilateral relations and growing tensions.
Relations between Ukraine and Russia have degraded to a crisis since the Global Risks report was published and Russian forces invaded Ukraine Feb. 24, 2022. The report states that a rise in political instability, state fragility and civil conflict are likely to further swell refugee numbers. Since the invasion, as many as 1.5 million refugees have fled Ukraine to neighboring countries, according to U.N. estimates.
16. Prolonged economic stagnationCategory: Economic
Percent of respondents: 6.9%
Near-zero or slow global growth lasting for many years.
17. Asset bubble bursts in large economiesShutterstock
Category: Economic
Percent of respondents: 6.7%
Prices for housing, investment funds, shares and other assets in a large economy increasingly disconnect from the real economy.
18. Collapse or lack of social security systemsCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 6.2%
Non-existence or widespread bankruptcy of social security systems or erosion of social security benefits such as disability, elderly, family, injury, maternity, medical care, sickness, survivor, unemployment or other similar benefits.
Above, pensioners crowd outside a national bank branch in Greece, when the country cut state pensions during the financial crisis in 2015.
19. Large-scale involuntary migrationCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 5.4%
Large-scale involuntary migration can be induced by climate change, discrimination, lack of economic advancement opportunities, persecution, natural or human-made disasters, or violent conflict.
Above, Ukrainians crowd a train station in Lyiv, Ukraine, March 7, 2022, to catch a train out of the country. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine Feb. 24, as many as 1.5 million have fled the country to neighboring Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania and other E.U. countries, according to U.N. estimates.
20. Adverse outcomes of technological advancesCategory: Technological
Percent of respondents: 5.3%
There can be intended or unintended negative consequences of technological advances on individuals, businesses, ecosystems and/or economies from artificial intelligence, brain-computer interfaces, biotechnology, geo-engineering or quantum computing.
21. Failure of technology governanceCategory: Technological
Percent of respondents: 4.5%
When different countries adopt incompatible digital infrastructure, protocols and standards, it leads to a lack of globally accepted frameworks, institutions or regulations for the use of critical digital networks and technology.
22. Geopolitical contestation of strategic resourcesCategory: Geopolitical
Percent of respondents: 4.4%
Concentration, exploitation and mobility restriction by a state of goods, knowledge, services or technology that are critical to human development with the intent of gaining geopolitical advantage.
Conflicts over water resources are an example. According to BBC Future, conflicts over water are increasing, and drought could put up to 700 million people at risk of displacement by 2030.
Above, a woman collects water in the parched wetlands of southern Iraq, where reduced river flows due to damming upstream in Turkey have led to worsening water quality in the region.
23. Digital power concentrationCategory: Technological
Percent of respondents: 4.3%
Concentration of critical digital assets, capabilities and knowledge by a reduced number of individuals, businesses or states can result in discretionary pricing mechanisms, lack of impartial oversight and unequal private or public access.
For example, tech giants like Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Facebook and Microsoft wield political and economic power in a variety of ways.
24. Failure of public infrastructureCategory: Societal
Percent of respondents: 4.2%
Inequitable or insufficient public infrastructure and services as a result of mismanaged urban sprawl, poor planning or under-investment negatively impact economic advancement, education, housing, public health, social inclusion and the environment.
Above, water flows from the damaged and eroded overflow spillway of Oroville Dam, in Oroville, Calif. in 2017. The crisis resulted in emergency evacuation of more than 180,000 people downstream.
25. Collapse of a systemically important industryCategory: Economic
Percent of respondents: 4.1%
Collapse of a systemically important global industry or firm has an impact on the global economy, financial markets and society.
One example is the bailout of Wall Street banks and other financial institutions during the global financial crisis.
26. Failure to stabilize price trajectoriesCategory: Economic
Percent of respondents: 3.3%
Inability to control an unmanageable increase (inflation) or decrease (deflation) in the general price level of goods and services.
Above, Venezuelans pick up bags of subsidized food in 2021. Currency instability and hyperinflation from the country’s ongoing socioeconomic and political crisis has led to skyrocketing costs for food and other consumer goods. As many as 6 million people have fled the country since 2014, by some estimates.
27. Severe commodity shocksCategory: Economic
Percent of respondents: 3%
Abrupt shocks to the supply and demand of systemically important commodities at a global scale that strain corporate, public and household budgets, such as chemicals, emissions, energy, foods, metals, minerals, etc.
28. Interstate conflictShutterstock
Category: Geopolitical
Percent of respondents: 2.9%
Belligerent bilateral or multilateral conflict between states with global consequences: biological, chemical, cyber and/or physical attacks, military interventions, proxy wars, etc.
Above, Ukrainians take shelter in a subway station in Kyiv, Ukraine, during a Russian bombing Feb. 25, 2022.
29. Natural resource crisesCategory: Environmental
Percent of respondents: 2.7%
Chemical, food, mineral, water or other natural resource crises at a global scale as a result of human overexploitation and/or mismanagement of critical natural resources.
30. State collapseCategory: Geopolitical
Percent of respondents: 2.6%
Collapse of a state with global geopolitical importance as a result of internal conflict, breakdown of rule of law, erosion of institutions, military coup, regional or global instability.
The remaining risks in the survey and the percent of respondents who cited each as worse were:
IT infrastructure breakdown: 2.4%Multilateralism collapse: 2.2%Illicit economic activity: 2.2%Pollution harms to health: 1.9%Terrorist attacks: 1.6%Geophysical disasters: 0.8%Weapons of mass destruction: 0.3% >> Plus: These 25 Actions in 5 Sectors Can Tackle 90% of Global Emissions